Friday, September 27, 2024

The Obscurity of the Holy Spirit in the Traditional Revelation of Hell

 












Even if the scriptural revelation of Hell is obscure, Christians can respond by arguing that Jesus Christ promised to send the Holy Spirit to believers as a divine guide to His truth, and so the Holy Spirit can direct the church's tradition of interpreting scripture so that the truly revealed meaning of scripture becomes clear (for Christ's promise to send the Holy Spirit, see John 14:15-27, 15:26-16:15).  For example, many Christians believe the Holy Spirit inspired the Church Fathers in their reading of the Bible.

This idea is beautifully conveyed in the pictures above from St. Peter's Basilica.  These images are from the apse at the end of the central nave.  There is an online virtual reality tour of the apse.

In the center of the apse is the Altar of the Chair of St. Peter.  Peter is the "rock" of the Church through whom has passed the apostolic succession linking the popes to Christ.  Beneath the Chair are four huge statues (over 16 feet tall).  The two outer statues are figures of the Latin Church: St. Ambrose and St. Augustine (in the bottom picture above).  The two inner statues are of two Doctors of the Greek Church:  St. Athanasius and St. John Chrysostom.  Thus, it is suggested that these theologians from both the Latin and Greek churches have a consistent teaching that is descended from the Apostles through Peter.

Above the Chair of Peter is a brilliant dove that is a symbol of the Holy Spirit, who guides the Church through Peter and the theologians to the truth of revelation.

But this suggests a question:  Has the Holy Spirit succeeded in conveying the revealed truth of Christian doctrines such as Heaven and Hell, so that all Christians can agree on one orthodoxy?

On the issue of Hell as eternal torment, the answer seems to be No.  But even if all Christians cannot agree on this, perhaps most of them can agree.  Would this be enough to show the success of revelation through the Holy Spirit?

Actually, it is not clear that the majority of Christians throughout the two-thousand year history of the Christian tradition have believed that the torment of Hell is eternal.  There is some evidence that in the first five centuries of Christianity, the universalist Christians--who believed that those condemned to Hell would eventually be saved--were a large faction, and perhaps even the majority, of the Christians, particularly in the Greek Eastern Christian world.  Christian theologians like Origen (c. 185-c. 253) and Gregory of Nyssa (c. 335-c. 394) advocated Christian universalism.  But then by the fifth century, theologians like Augustine (c. 354-c. 430) tried to refute the universalists and argued for eternal torment in Hell.  And as indicated by the prominence of Augustine's statue in St. Peter's Basilica, the Catholic Church has assumed that the Holy Spirit spoke through Augustine as representing the orthodox tradition of the Church.  And yet, how can we know that this is true?

Hart begins his book That All Shall Be Saved by stating: "The great fourth-century church father Basil of Caesarea (c. 329-379) once observed that, in his time, a large majority of his fellow Christians (at least, in the Greek-speaking Eastern Christian world that he knew) believed that hell was not everlasting, and that all in the end would attain salvation" (1-2).  

Writing for First Things, Michael Pakaluk argued that Hart was committing "theological fraud" in this assertion about what Basil had said.  But Hart replied to Pakaluk by showing that this is exactly what Basil had said.  Basil was not endorsing universalism because he was trying to show that it contradicted a clear scriptural teaching of eternal torment, but he was observing that "the great multitude of men" (hoi polloi ton anthropon)  among his fellow Christians had made the mistake of being universalists.  When polloi is given with the definite article, it means not just "many" but "the many" as opposed to "the few," and thus the majority as opposed to the minority.

Once the Catholic Church and other Christian churches adopted Augustine's position favoring eternal torment in Hell, that became the dominant majority tradition for most Christians for the next 1500 years.  But Hart's argument is that this was a mistake because of Gregory of Nyssa's defense of universalism is far more cogent--a more coherent and morally logical interpretation of scripture--than Augustine's position.

In The City of God, Augustine entered a "friendly-spirited" with those "merciful-hearted" (misericordes) Christians who deny the human beings condemned to Hell will suffer eternal punishment and never be saved (book 21, ch. 17).  Hart observes that "the merciful-hearted" is "an epithet that for him apparently had something of a censorious ring to it (one, I confess, that is quite inaudible to me)."

Augustine's main argument against these Christians who suffer from excessive mercy is that they fail to see how scripture--particularly, Matthew 25:41 and Revelation 20:10--teaches that the torment of Hell must be eternal.  This must be so, he asserts, because Jesus clearly indicates the parallelism of "eternal life" in Heaven and "eternal punishment" in Hell.  To say that eternal life shall be without end, while eternal punishment will have an end, is "utterly absurd" (book 21, ch. 24).

Hart has pointed out, however, that Augustine could not read Greek, and so he had to rely on the Latin translation of the New Testament.  Augustine did not know, therefore, that the Latin word aeterna is a translation of the Greek word aionios, which can mean "eternal" or "everlasting," but can also mean an "age" or "extended period of time."  He did not study how the Greek New Testament uses this Greek world aionios, and so he did not notice that Jude 7 speaks of the puros aioniou ("eternal fire") that destroyed Sodom and Gomorrah, although this fire lasted for only one day!

Did the Holy Spirit fail to explain to Augustine the lexicography of New Testament Greek words like aionios?  

Why didn't that Dove of the Holy Spirit flying over the head of Augustine do a better job of guiding his reading of the New Testament?



Thursday, September 26, 2024

The Obscurity of the Biblical Revelation of Hell, And the End of Esotericism

 Scriptural revelation does not give us a clear teaching about Heaven and Hell.  The Hebrew Bible says almost nothing about Heaven and Hell.  The New Testament says more about this, but what is said is vague and confusing, if not incoherent.  The Quran is more explicit and descriptive in its few accounts of Heaven and Hell, but it's still remarkably unclear.

In the controversy over the Bible's account of Hell, there have been two major questions.  Does the Bible support the predominant view of orthodox Christians that most human beings will suffer eternal torment in Hell?  If it does, does the Bible teach that the torment will be the same for everyone, or will there be different kinds of torment for different kinds of sin?

I won't say much about the second question except to note that the Bible says almost nothing about precise gradations of punishment in Hell (such as what Dante describes in his Inferno).  When Jesus condemned the hypocrisy of the "teachers of the law," he said: "They devour widow's houses and for a show make lengthy prayers.  These men will be punished most severely" (Mark 12:40).  But Jesus didn't explain exactly how such variations in the severity of punishment would appear in Hell.  Jesus also spoke in a parable about slaves receiving different levels of punishment for their disobeying their masters:  "The slave who knows the master's will and does not get ready or does not do what the master wants will be beaten with many blows.  But the one who does not know and does things deserving punishment will be beaten with few blows.  From everyone who has been given much, much will be demanded; and from the one who has been entrusted with much, much more will be asked" (Luke 12:47-48).  But Jesus didn't explain exactly whether or how this parable is meant to apply to different kinds of punishment in Hell.

There are many more scriptural passages that can be read as answering the question about eternal torment in Hell.  And yet these passages are so confusing and contradictory that almost every position in the debate over this question seems to have some scriptural support.

A good survey of the positions in this debate is Four Views of Hell, edited by Preston Sprinkle (Grand Rapids, MI: Zondervan, 2016).  In this book, Denny Burk speaks for "eternal conscious torment," which is the traditional interpretation of Hell as the place where most human beings will be condemned to eternal punishment, and they will never be saved.  John Stackhouse speaks for "terminal punishment," which is the idea that most human beings will suffer a period of punishment in Hell, but then they will be extinguished forever.  Robin Parry speaks for "universalism," for the thought that all those punished in Hell will all eventually learn from their punishment that they need to repent of their sins and accept the redemptive mercy offered by Christ, and thus in the end all human beings will be saved and enjoy eternal happiness in Heaven.  Finally, Jerry Walls for "Purgatory," for the idea that sinful people who die in a state of grace, but are less than fully perfected, need to go to a place where they can be purified before they enter Heaven.  

It is questionable whether Walls' argument for Purgatory belongs in a book on "views of Hell," because since all the people in Purgatory are saved and on their way to Heaven, Purgatory is not a mitigation of Hell but a modification of Heaven.  By contrast, Limbo is a real mitigation of Hell, because the unbaptized infants in Limbo are damned by original sin, but they suffer only the deprivation of the beatific vision in Heaven and not the sensible torment of Hell.  In Dante's Divine Comedy, Limbo is the highest level of Hell, just before Purgatory.

To my mind, the best defense of universalism is David Bentley Hart's That All Shall Be Saved: Heaven, Hell, and Universal Salvation (Yale University Press, 2019).  The best comprehensive history and critique of Christian universalism is Michael McClymond's two-volume The Devil's Redemption: A New History and Interpretation of Christian Universalism (Grand Rapids, MI: Baker Academic, 2018).

All of the authors in these books are Christians who look to the Bible as the authoritative vehicle for divine revelation, and therefore they agree that any resolution of the debate over Hell must come from scripture.  The problem, however, is that there are many scriptural texts that seem to support opposing positions in the debate.  So, for example, Burk identifies 10 biblical texts supporting his view of Hell as eternal torment.  While Hart identifies 23 texts supporting his view that while some human beings will endure a period of punishment in Hell, ultimately all human beings will be saved and enter Heaven.

One of the clearest texts for eternal torment in Hell is what Jesus said about separating the sheep from the goats in Matthew 25:31-46.  "When the Son of Man comes in his glory, and all the angels with him, he will sit on his glorious throne.  All the nations will be gathered before him, and he will separate the people one from another as a shepherd separates the sheep from the goats.  He will put the sheep on his right and the goats on his left."  The sheep on his right will enter the Kingdom of God and enjoy "eternal life."  The goats on his left will be condemned to "eternal punishment" and "the eternal fire prepared for the devil and his angels."

Another seemingly clear text for Hell as eternal torment is Revelation 20.  John foresees that Christ will return to earth to rule over all the earth for a thousand years.  At the end of that thousand-year reign, there will be a judgment of Satan, who will be thrown into a lake of fire and "tormented day and night for ever and ever."  Then, there will be a judgment of the dead, and "each person was judged according to what they had done."  "Anyone whose name was not found written in the book of life was thrown into the lake of fire."

Hart has his own interpretations of passages like this.  He notes that in the English translations of Matthew's references to "eternal punishment" and "eternal fire," the word "eternal" is a translation of the Greek word aionios, which is an ambiguous word in Greek.  It can mean a period of endless or indeterminate duration, but it can also mean an "age" or extended interval.  So Jesus might have meant that punishment in Hell will be over an extended period but not "eternal."

There is a problem with this interpretation, however.  When Jesus speaks of "eternal life" for the saved, it's the same Greek word aionios that is translated as "eternal."  The parallelism here between "eternal life" and "eternal punishment" suggests that in both terms aionios really means "eternal."  Hart's response to this is to argue that since many verses in the New Testament say that God intends to save all human beings, Matthew's reference to punishment being aionios cannot be read as "eternal punishment" without contradicting what is said elsewhere in the New Testament.

Moreover, we can't be sure that Jesus meant to indicate a parallel in his use of aionios between the punishment of the age to come and the life of the age to come.  For that, we must look elsewhere in the New Testament as to how the word aionios is used.  In Jude 7, the phrase puros aioniou ("eternal fire") is used to describe the punishment of Sodom and Gomorrah.  But Sodom's fire only lasted for one day!  So this suggests that for Jesus, eschatological life and punishment are parallel in belonging to the age to come, but are not parallel in needing to last forever:  life in Heaven must be forever, but punishment in Hell might be for a limited period of time.

And as to all the strange imagery in Revelation about Satan and the damned being thrown into the lake of fire, Hart dismisses the whole book of Revelation as "an impenetrable puzzle, one whose key vanished long ago along with the particular local community of Christians who produced it."

". . . True, the book does contain a few especially piquant pictures of final perdition, if that is what one chooses to cling to as something apparently solid and buoyant amid the whelming floods of all that hallucinatory imagery; but, even then, the damnation those passages describe chiefly falls upon patently allegorical figures like 'Hades' (Death personified) or 'the Beast' (Rome 'brutified'), which hardly seems to allow for much in the way doctrinal exactitude.  As it happens, the text also contains a lamb with seven horns and seven eyes, horses with lions' heads and tails like serpents, giant angels, locusts with iron thoraxes, a dragon with seven heads and ten horns and wearing seven diadems, a great whore seated on the beast and bearing a chalice full of abominations, a gigantic city with streets of transparent gold . . . (and so on and so forth).  One would have to be something of a lunatic to mistake any of it for a straightforward statement of dogma" (107).

Indeed, throughout the New Testament, Hart observes, the language about the afterlife in Hell or Heaven should be seen as "an intentionally heterogenous phantasmagory, meant as much to disorient as to instruct" that provides no precise and literal description of life after death (119).  Moreover, the confusing language about Hell is somewhat hidden by the custom of using the single Anglo-Saxon word "Hell" as a collective translation for three Greek words--Gehenna, Hades, and Tartarus.  Hades is the pagan conception of the world under the earth where all of the dead go.  Gehenna is the Greek form of Ge-Hinnom, "Valley of Hinnom," which is located southwest of Jerusalem, which was associated with child-sacrifice for worshippers of evil gods.  Tartarus was a pagan conception of a place where demonic spirits were imprisoned (112).  None of this can be considered a clear description of any Christian doctrine about the afterlife.

By contrast, Hart insists, there are some clear doctrinal statements in the New Testament of God's intention to save all human beings.  "So, then, just as through one transgression came condemnation for all human beings, so also through one act of righteousness came a rectification of life for all human beings" (Romans 5:18).  "For just as in Adam all die, so also in Christ all will be given life" (1 Corinthians 15:22).  "Our savior God . . . intends all human beings to be saved and come to a full knowledge of truth" (1 Timothy 2:3).

But isn't there a contradiction between these scriptural statements that all people will be saved and the other statements that some people ("the goats") will go to Hell?  No, Robin Perry argues, there is no contradiction:  "it is arguable that we can legitimately infer that those in hell will be saved out of hell.  If postmortem salvation can be legitimately inferred from teachings that have good claims to being biblical, then the doctrine itself can claim to be biblical, at least in a secondary sense" (117).

But notice that he has to infer this as biblical "in a secondary sense," because there is no explicit statement about "postmortem salvation" anywhere in the Bible.  If this really is a biblical teaching, why did the biblical authors refuse to state this openly and explicitly?

One answer suggested by the proponents of universal salvation, beginning with the early Church fathers such as Origen, has been that universal salvation should be a "secret teaching" known only to the Christian intellectual elite because the common people need to fear eternal torment in Hell as the only way to scare them into good behavior.  Universal salvation must an esoteric truth known only to the intellectual few, while eternal damnation is the exoteric truth believed by the ignorant many.  Eternal punishment in the afterlife is a lie, but it's a noble lie because it deters bad behavior in this life.

One indication of this esotericism in the universalist teaching about Hell is that it has often been hidden in private manuscripts or in posthumous and anonymous publications (see Hart, 200-201; McClymond, 2-14, 20, 46-49, 158-59, 631-40, 696; and D. P. Walker, The Decline of Hell: Seventeenth-Century Discussions of Eternal Torment [University of Chicago Press, 1964], 5-8, 48, 76-83, 158-62).  From Plato to Locke, philosophers have argued that the public teaching of atheism must be prohibited because atheists deny the eternal punishment of bad people in the afterlife that provides the only deterrence to immoral conduct for most people.

It is remarkable, therefore, that Christian universalism and the denial of eternal torment are now being publicly advocated and debated rather than being hidden as a secret teaching.  It is even being promoted in popular best-selling books--like Rob Bell's Love Wins.

This confirms my argument that modern liberalism's success over the last two centuries has shown that esoteric writing is neither desirable nor necessary in a liberal open society.  We no longer see any need to persecute heretics or atheists.

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Heaven and Hell in the Reason/Revelation Debate: In Defense of Zetetic Scientific Philosophizing

Over the years, I have written a lot about the reason/revelation debate, particularly as manifest in the thought of Leo Strauss and Charles Darwin.   I have made five claims. 

First, I have agreed with Catherine and Michael Zuckert in identifying Strauss as a zetetic philosopher--as someone devoted to Socratic inquiry into the nature of the whole without expecting to achieve full knowledge of the whole, who makes a rational choice for philosophy over revelation but without ever refuting revelation.  

Second, I have identified Charles Darwin as a zetetic scientific philosopher in choosing evolutionary science over Biblical creationism, while recognizing that he could not refute the revelation of God as the First Cause of natural evolutionary history, which would support theistic evolution.  

Third, I have argued that the Darwinian liberalism that emerged during Darwin's lifetime promoted the public debate over reason and revelation that was revived by Strauss, which shows how the liberal social order secures the freedom of thought that allows people to freely choose between the philosophic life, as satisfying the natural desire for intellectual understanding, and the religious life, as satisfying the natural desire for religious transcendence.

Fourth, I have said that the success of Darwinian liberalism over the past two hundred years has made esoteric writing undesirable and unnecessary, so that now the choice between reason and revelation can be an open and public debate, because in a liberal or open society, there is no natural conflict between the philosophic life of the few and the practical life of the many.

Fifth, although the zetetic scientific philosophers cannot refute revelation, they can show that revelation suffers from such obscurity that religious believers cannot agree on what is religious orthodoxy, and consequently, as Locke said, "everyone is orthodox to himself," which supports the need for religious toleration and liberty.

As one illustration of the last point, I have pointed out that neither biblical revelation nor natural revelation provides a clear teaching to resolve the debate among Christians over creation and evolution. 

Another illustration of the obscurity of revelation is in the disagreement among Christians about the afterlife in Heaven and Hell.  In some ways, this is the crucial teaching of Christianity because it's the question of the eternal destiny or final end of human beings in the cosmos:  Will we achieve eternal happiness in Heaven or eternal misery in Hell?

In my next three posts, I will take up the question of Hell.  And I will argue that neither biblical revelation, nor traditional revelation, nor natural revelation provide Christians with a clear teaching about Hell on which they can agree.

The zetetic scientific philosopher will infer from this that either God has not revealed the truth about Hell, or He has, but He has failed to reveal it clearly enough to be understood by all (or at least most) believers.

Then, in subsequent posts, I will take up the question of Heaven, and argue that the revelation of Heaven has been just as obscure as the revelation of Hell.

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Darwinian Thinking About Life After Death

Darwinian science can explain the evolved natural desire for religious experience as a manifestation of the uniquely human evolved capacity for symbolism--for imagining symbolic worlds that can include life after death, perhaps with eternal happiness in Heaven for the saved or eternal torment in Hell for the damned.  We have an instinctive desire for preserving our lives, and our powerful imaginations can project our lives into an endless future after death.  

We create the symbolic reality of the afterlife by collective consent--by agreeing with one another that this symbolic world exists.  That is to say that we must persuade one another that it's real.  That also means that we can persuade ourselves that it is not real.  For example, as I have argued, the four possible ways of achieving immortality--staying alive forever, living forever after being bodily resurrected after death, living forever as a disembodied soul, or living forever though one's legacy (fame or progeny)--can all be shown to be incoherent illusions, because a deathless existence could never preserve the personal identity of any human being.

But then if we were persuaded that the symbolic world of the afterlife is not real, we would have to learn to live with the inevitability of death without that knowledge ruining our lives.  We could do that if we could see that living forever is not as good for us, and death is not as bad for us, as we might think.  We would need to see that living forever cannot be really desirable because a deathless human life could not be a truly human life, a point beautifully conveyed in Wallace Stevens' poem "Sunday Morning," which teaches us that "death is the mother of beauty."  We also need to see that fearing death makes no sense because the dead know nothing, and no living human being can ever be dead, an argument that has been advanced by Epicurus and by Epicureans like Lucretius and Montaigne.

We might worry, however, that morality requires the cosmic justice of Heaven and Hell.  Do good people need to hope for eternal happiness in Heaven, while bad people need to fear eternal damnation in Hell?  Or does our moral conduct depend on the rewards and punishments that come to us while we are alive?  How we answer such questions might decide whether we can agree on the symbolic reality of Heaven and Hell.

Charles Darwin thought that there was a natural moral sense that could move people to moral conduct without any belief in heavenly rewards or hellish punishments.  He claimed that "a man who has no asssured and ever present belief in the existence of a personal God or of a future existence with retribution and reward" could still derive moral guidance from social praise and blame and from his own rational judgment or conscience.  And yet he also thought that "the conviction of the existence of an all-seeing Deity has had a potent influence on the advance of morality." 

Darwin agreed with the Epicurean denial of life after death, even though he rarely spoke about this in his public writing.  He was led to this both by his evolutionary science of life and death and by his personal experience with death, particularly the death of his ten-year-old daughter Annie in 1851.  She died of tuberculosis (known at the time as "consumption").  Darwin's way of understanding and dealing with the death of his child was to keep a careful record of her childhood and her sickness and to preserve his memories of her--particularly, the "joyousness" of her character--in a written memorial essay.

Darwin looked forward to the day that scientists would understand the natural causes of her sickness and perhaps the remedies for it.  He was excited, therefore, when in 1877 he saw an article by Dr. Robert Koch with the first photographs of bacteria, along with Koch's argument that such microorganisms could cause diseases.  Darwin said that it would be the "greatest triumph of Science" to discover the origin of infectious diseases such as the one that killed Annie.

In March 24, 1882, Koch announced that he had identified the cause of tuberculosis as a bacillus Mycobacterium tuberculosis.  This was only a few weeks before Darwin's death on April 19.  Over the next forty years, scientists developed antibiotics for treating tuberculosis and a vaccine for preventing it.  In 19th century Europe, 25% of all deaths had come from tuberculosis.  So this medical advance contributed to the remarkable lengthening of the average human lifespan.

Of course, this prolonging of human life by natural science cannot secure life after death.  Unlike his wife Emma, who was a Universalist Unitarian who believed in the universal salvation of all human beings in Heaven after death, who could therefore seek consolation in the thought that she could someday see Annie in Heaven, Darwin saw no reason to believe in the orthodox Christian doctrine of Heaven.

But Darwin and Emma did agree in their rejection of the orthodox Christian doctrine that most human beings would suffer eternal torment in Hell, which Darwin called a "damnable doctrine."

In fact, many Christians like Emma had been persuaded to deny the symbolic reality of Hell as eternal torment as a morally incoherent idea contrary to the scriptural texts of the New Testament.

Over the past fifty years, a growing number of Christians have been led to this conclusion, particularly by people like David Bentley Hart.  In my next post, I will reflect on this as a dramatic example of the cultural evolution of human symbolic thinking about the afterlife.

Thursday, September 05, 2024

Kamala Harris Will Win--At Least in the Popular Vote

Allan Lichtman has predicted (in a video produced by the New York Times) that Kamala Harris will win the presidential election.  As I said in a previous post in 2020, Lichtman (a historian at American University) has persuaded me that he has the best model for predicting presidential elections based on his study of all the presidential elections since 1860.  But there is one flaw in his model: although it almost perfectly predicts the popular vote winner, it cannot predict those cases where the loser in the popular vote wins in the Electoral College.

In 2000, he predicted that Al Gore would win, and indeed he did win the popular election by about 544,000 votes.  But Gore lost the Electoral College by a narrow margin (271 for Bush, 266 for Gore).  The Electoral College vote was decided when Florida's 25 electoral votes went to Bush.  The U.S. Supreme Court halted the recount of votes in Florida with Bush leading Gore by 537 votes out of almost 6 million votes cast.

Lichtman tried to argue that his prediction was not a failure because he had correctly predicted Gore's popular vote victory.  So, he seemed to concede that his model predicts the popular vote but not the Electoral College vote.

But then, in 2016, Lichtman became famous for predicting Trump's win, even though most people had predicted a Clinton win.  Of course, Trump actually lost the popular vote by almost 3 million votes.  So, in claiming that he had correctly predicted the election in 2016, Lichtman was contradicting what he had said in 2000--that his model only predicted the popular vote winner.  Lichtman should have admitted that in 2016 his model failed to predict Clinton's popular vote win.

In 2020, Lichtman correctly predicted Biden's win, who won both the popular vote and the Electoral College.

In 2020, I argued that Lichtman needed to add a 14th Key to his "13 Keys to the White House" that would say "The likely voters for the incumbent party are evenly distributed across the states so as to minimize wasted votes in the Electoral College system."  Answering yes to this statement would favor the incumbent party.

But now I see that this doesn't work as a modification of his model.  Instead of that, I would suggest that he needs to add a qualifying statement to the model:  This model predicts the popular vote winner in almost every case (except for elections like 2016), but it cannot predict when the popular vote winner is the loser in the Electoral College.

Lichtman is wrong, therefore, when he says: "Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States."  What he should say is: I predict that Kamala Harris will win the popular vote for President, but it is possible that Trump could still win the Electoral College.

The reason for this weakness in his model is that the Electoral College allows presidential elections to be decided by a few votes in a few key states in ways that are not predictable by any model of presidential elections.  For example, in 2016, Trump won all 16 of the electoral votes for Michigan, even though he won by only 10,704 popular votes out of a total of 4,548, 382 votes.  In 2020, Biden won all 16 of the electoral votes for Georgia, even though he won by only 11,779 votes out of a total of 4,935, 487 votes.  The problem here is that the "winner-take-all" system of the Electoral College in most states (except for Nebraska and Maine) gives all of a state's electoral votes to the popular vote winner in the state, even when only a few thousand votes have made the difference, and thus the votes cast on the losing side have been wasted.

This obvious unfairness could be eliminated by either abolishing the Electoral College or by having state legislatures abolish the "winner-take-all" process for allocating electoral votes.

Let's turn now to Lichtman's model as applied to the 2024 presidential race.

Lichtman's fundamental insight--based on his study of presidential elections--is that voters in a presidential election are mostly judging the past performance of the incumbent party, and that what happens in the presidential campaign--campaign tactics, fluctuating polling, presidential debates, campaign fundraising, campaign advertising, and so on--don't really matter all that much, because all that matters for the voters--the past performance of the incumbent party--has been determined long before the campaign began.  Of course, this contradicts what most political commentators assume, which is that the outcome depends upon the day-to-day events of the presidential campaign.

From his study of the history, as laid out in his book Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House (Rowman and Littlefield, 2020 edition), Lichtman decided that there were 13 conditions that favor reelection of the incumbent party.  These 13 conditions could be framed as 13 statements, so that when six or more of these statements are false, the incumbent party loses.  Here I will state each of the keys followed by Lichtman's answer for 2024.

KEY 1  Incumbent party mandate:  After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.

False.  Although the Democrats did better than expected in the 2022 midterms, they experienced a net loss in House seats.

KEY 2  Nomination contest:  There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.

True.  Harris won her nomination without any contest for the nomination.

KEY 3  Incumbency:  The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.

False.  The Democrats lost this key when Biden withdrew his candidacy for a second term.

KEY 4  Third party:  There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.

True.  With RFK Jr.'s withdrawal from third-party candidacy, this key goes to the Democrats.

KEY 5  Short-term economy:  The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

True.  Despite the fact that some people have complained about the economy, there is no clear evidence of a recession.

KEY 6  Long-term economy:  Real annual per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the two previous terms.

True.  Growth during Biden's term has exceeded the growth over the two previous terms.

KEY 7  Policy change:  The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

True.  Biden has made some major changes in policy--such as rejoining the Paris Accords on Climate Change, the CHIPS Bill, the Inflation Reduction and Climate Change Bill, and the Infrastructure Bill.

KEY 8  Social unrest:  There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

True.  Although there has been some social unrest associated with the pro-Palestine student protests, this has not been sustained over a long period.

KEY 9  Scandal:  The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

True.  The attempts of the Republicans to find Biden guilty of some great scandal have failed.  Hunter Biden's legal problems have not created a personal scandal for the President.

KEY 10  Foreign or military failure:  The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

Undecided.  It's not clear right now whether the Biden Administration's policy for a cease-fire in Gaza will fail.

KEY 11  Foreign or military success:  The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

Undecided.  For the reason just indicated for foreign or military success.

KEY 12  Incumbent charisma:  The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

False.  Kamala Harris does not have a broadly bipartisan charismatic appeal (comparable to someone like Ronald Reagan).

KEY 13  Challenger charisma:  The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

True.  Although the cult of Trump treat him like a God, this is a narrow base in the electorate.  Most voters find Trump repulsive rather than charismatic.  This makes an interesting point about Trump's "populism"--contrary to his claim to speak for all or at least most of the people (the "true Americans"), he speaks only for a minority.  That's the fundamental weakness in most populist movements.


This gives Harris and the Democrats eight true keys, and that's enough to win.  Even if the two foreign policy keys were to flip to false, that would constitute only five false keys, not enough for the Republicans to win.



                             Lichtman Applies His 13 Keys to Harris, 1 Hour and 14 Minutes

Wednesday, September 04, 2024

Are Most of Us Going to Hell? Is Don Giovanni Already There?

J. D. Vance has said that Kamala Harris "can go to Hell" for her failure to investigate the killing of 13 U.S. military service people during the evacuation from Afghanistan in August of 2021.  When he was asked whether he should apologize for using such language, he said that he would not apologize for using "a colloquial phrase" to express his moral disgust with Harris.  Of course, he is right that most of us today use the words "go to Hell" as a "colloquial" expression of our emotional disgust with someone.  

This suggests that we have forgotten that for most of Christian history, orthodox Christians spoke of "going to Hell" as a literally true Christian doctrine--that most human beings after they die will go to Hell where they will be eternally tormented by God as punishment for their wickedness.  As I have indicated in my recent posts on Vance and his association with Catholic Integralism, Vance professes to be a traditionalist Catholic who believes in the truth of Christian orthodoxy, who also believes that the identity of America as a Christian nation depends on enforcing belief in that Christian orthodoxy.  

For the Catholic Integralists, the highest end of man is to avoid eternal torment in Hell and enjoy eternal beatitude in Heaven.  And achieving that end requires a Catholic theocracy: the temporal power of the state must serve the spiritual power of the Catholic Church, the only true Church that can lead human beings to eternal salvation and away from eternal punishment.  But as I have argued previously, the Catholic Integralists don't really believe this, because they are still liberals who accept the liberal principles of religious liberty and toleration.

Moreover, people like Vance and the Catholic Integralists--and most Christians generally today--believe that the truth of Christian orthodoxy has been divinely revealed by the Holy Spirit through scripture and tradition.  But that belief is denied by the fact of religious pluralism--by the fact that devout Christians cannot reach agreement on fundamental Christian doctrines such as the doctrine of Hell as eternal torment for most human beings.  This confirms Locke's claim that "everyone is orthodox to himself," and for that reason we need to secure the religious liberty and toleration that will allow a free debate over religious doctrines without any coercive enforcement of one church's orthodoxy over another's.

Last year, the Gallup polling organization reported that the proportion of Americans professing to believe in God, Heaven, and Hell has declined over the past 24 years.  In 2001, 90% believed in God, 83% believed in Heaven, and 71% believed in Hell.  In 2023, that had gone down to 74% (God), 67% (Heaven), and 59% (Hell).  In some other countries, the percentages are lower.  In Great Britain, for example, it's 49% for God, 41% for Heaven, and 26% for Hell.  Hell is always less popular than Heaven.  Nevertheless, the international surveys report that in a few countries--like Egypt and Morocco--almost 100% of people report believing in Hell.

Over the years, I have written many posts on the evolutionary history of Heaven and Hell.  And in the last four hundred years of that evolutionary history, particularly in Europe and North America, there has been a notable decline in belief in the Christian orthodox doctrine of Hell as the place for the eternal torment of most human beings.


DID DON GIOVANNI GO TO HELL?

Recently, I had to think more about this when my wife and I attended performances of Verdi's La Traviata and Mozart's Don Giovanni at the Santa Fe Opera.  Don Giovanni was a legendary libertine who was reputed to have seduced (or raped) over 2,000 women.  The Italian libretto for Mozart's opera, written by Lorenzo Da Ponte, is based on this old story.

At the beginning of the opera, in seventeenth-century Seville, we see the Don struggling with Donna Anna, who is resisting his sexual assault.  Donna Anna's father, the Commendatore, comes out of his palace, and he challenges Don Giovanni with a sword.  At first, the Don is reluctant to fight with an old man, but finally he draws his sword and easily kills him.  Leporello, the Don's servant, is horrified by what he has seen.  The Don and Leporello leave together.  

Meanwhile, Donna Anna and Don Ottavio, her betrothed, come out of the palace and are shocked by the dead body of the Commendatore.  Together, they sing about their "oath to the gods . . . to avenge that blood."  That sets the recurrent theme in the opera of "vengeance" as indicated by the many appearances of the Italian word vendetta in the libretto.  Every woman who is assaulted or betrayed by Don Giovanni seeks vengeance against him.  And as they warn other women about his predatory ways, the Don fails in all his attempts at new conquests because he cannot escape his bad reputation.

Near the end of the opera, the Don and Leporello are walking through a graveyard with monuments and statues, including one of the Commendatore.  The Commendatore's marble statue speaks: "You will cease laughing before dawn!"  Mozart uses three trombones here for the first time in the opera.  In the eighteenth century, trombones were used mainly for religious music and for supernatural scenes in operas.  This sudden entrance of trombones in what is a comic opera must have awed Mozart's audiences.

Don Giovanni is surprised, and he asks Leporello to read the inscription on the statue: "Here I await vengeance [vendetta] on the wicked man who brought me to my death."  Leporello is frightened.  But the Don is amused.  He invites the statue to come to dinner.  The statue agrees.

Later, Don Giovanni is having a grand party in the banquet-hall of his palace.  The statue arrives and enters the room.  He invites the Don to have dinner with him.  The Don agrees.  He gives his hand to the statue as his pledge.  The statue's hand is freezing cold.  He orders the Don:  "Repent, change your life, it is your last moment!"  Giovanni refuses to repent.

Roaring flames begin to surround Giovanni, and demon voices are heard from below: "All is as nothing compared to your crimes! Come!  Worse is in store for your!"

Giovanni cries: "Who tears my spirit?  Who shakes my innards?  What twisting, alas, what frenzy!  What hell.  What terror."

With the demon voices screaming, Giovanni cries "Ah!" as he is enveloped by flames and sinks to hell.

A few minutes later, all of the main characters appear in the room.  Leporello explains what happened: "right over there the devil swallowed him up."  Don Ottavio says: "we all have been avenged by heaven."  The opera ends with all singing the "very ancient song"--"And the death of wicked men is always just like their life."

Don Giovanni has always been one of the most popular of all operas.  And some opera critics have said that it is the greatest of all operas.  And yet many people have found the end of the opera with the Don's descent into Hell unsatisfying.  This ending just does not feel right.


                     Don Giovanni, the Commendatore Scene, from the Movie Amadeus


Or perhaps it does not feel right only for modern secular audiences and opera directors who have no understanding of Mozart's Catholic Christian conception of Hell as the place where evil men like Don Giovanni will be eternally tormented for their sins.  

But that's not a good answer, because the religious language in Don Giovanni sounds more like a vaguely pagan polytheistic view of the Underworld rather than a Christian view of Hell.  The characters invoke "the gods" without any reference to the God of the Bible or to Jesus.  In explaining what has happened to the Don, they say that he has gone to be with "Proserpina and Pluto"--the ancient Roman gods of the Underworld.  This is very strange for people supposedly living in the Catholic Spanish world of 17th century Seville!

Furthermore, whenever the characters appeal to a "just heaven" to punish Giovanni, they seem to be projecting their own personal vendetta onto "heaven."  For example, Donna Elvira tells Giovanni: "A just heaven willed that I would find you, in order to accomplish its own vendetta and mine."

What I see here is confirmation of Judge Morris Hoffman's claim that evolution has built our brains to punish cheaters.  Our brains incline us to three kinds of punishment.  As first-party punishment, most human beings punish themselves for cheating through conscience and guilt.  As second-party punishment, wrongdoers are punished by retaliation and revenge (delayed retaliation) from their victims.  As third-party punishment, we punish wrongdoers for harming others with retribution.

It's clear to me that Don Giovanni has no moral conscience or sense of guilt, and so he doesn't punish himself for his wrongdoing.  He's a psychopath or what I have called a "moral stranger"--someone who does not feel the moral sentiments that most of us feel.

Nevertheless, Giovanni is punished by the second-party retaliation and revenge coming from his victims and by the third-party retribution coming from those who observed his wrongdoing.  If he really was sent to Hell by the gods of a "just heaven," that would be a supernatural form of third-party punishment.

Stephen Barlow--the Director of the Santa Fe Opera's production of Don Giovanni--disagrees with my claim that Giovanni has no conscience, and he even designed his production of the opera to show that Giovanni's guilty conscience drove him to kill himself at the end, and this self-inflicted punishment takes the place of his being thrown into Hell.

Barlow's idea was to alter the staging of Don Giovanni to make the story similar to Oscar Wilde's The Picture of Dorian Gray.  Dorian Gray is a young man in Victorian England whose beauty is admired by both men and women.  When an artist paints a portrait of Dorian, he realizes that while he will always be beautiful in the painting, he will lose his beauty as he ages.  So, he wishes that the face in the portrait would age, while he remains young and beautiful.  His wish is fulfilled.  He devotes his life to beauty and sensuous pleasures, and he experiments with every vice, even murder.  Reflecting the increasing degradation of his soul over the years, his portrait becomes ever more hideously ugly, while he still looks beautiful.

Struggling with his guilt, he decides that he must destroy the only evidence of his vicious conduct--the portrait.  He takes a knife and stabs the picture.  Doing that, he actually stabs himself in the heart and dies.  The next day, when people find his body, they see a withered and ugly corpse, while the portrait beside him is young and beautiful again.

To mimic this story, Barlow staged his Don Giovanni in Santa Fe as set in Victorian England.  At the opening of the opera, the audience sees a young and beautiful Giovanni having his portrait painted.  Then, at the end of the opera, the statue of the Commendatore is replaced by a portrait of the Commendatore, who looks like an aged and ugly Giovanni.  The Commendatore steps out of the portrait to challenge Giovanni.  Refusing to repent, Giovanni rushes toward the painting and stabs it with a knife.  But then Giovanni falls back and collapses.  He has actually stabbed himself and dies.  His guilty conscience has driven him to kill himself.

I do not see any evidence in the music or the libretto of Don Giovanni to justify Barlow's claim that Giovanni is punished and finally killed by his own guilty conscience.  The Don as depicted in this opera acts like a psychopathic libertine who has no conscience, whose punishment comes not from himself but from those provoked by his wrongdoing into a vendetta of retaliation and retribution.

I suspect, however, that many people in the Santa Fe audience found Barlow's clever alteration of the opera's ending more satisfying than Mozart's staging of the Don's descent into the eternal torment of Hell.  This is because in recent centuries, beginning in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, belief in the Christian doctrine of Hell as a place of eternal torment has been in decline, particularly in Europe and North America.

In my next post, I will say more about this cultural evolutionary history of the symbolic reality of Hell, so that increasingly many people today, even devout Christians, can no longer believe in that traditional doctrine of Hell.

Thursday, August 29, 2024

Lockean Meritocracy Satisfies the Evolutionary Natural Desire for Social Status and Egalitarian Hierarchy

There are at least twenty natural desires that are universal to all human societies because they are rooted in human biology as shaped by evolutionary history.  If the good is the desirable, then these twenty natural desires provide a universal basis for moral judgment.  A Lockean liberal social order can be judged to be the best regime in so far as it allows for the fullest satisfaction of those natural desires.

For example, there is a natural desire for social status that was formed in the Lockean evolutionary state of nature.  And we can see how the meritocracy in a Lockean liberal society satisfies that desire for social status.

Human beings generally desire social status through comparative social ranking.  This is a human universal found in all human societies (Brown 1991).  Human beings' esteem for themselves requires they be esteemed by others whose judgments they respect.  Human beings attain high social status through prestige, fame, or honor within the groups to which they belong.  And they can be ranked differently in different groups.  Although some societies are much less hierarchical than others, all societies rank individuals as higher or lower based on age, sex, kinship, physical formidability, physical attractiveness, social competence, and practical skills.

Individuals become socially dominant through any trait or activity that elicits deference in others.  A few charismatic individuals become heroic leaders because of their extraordinary power to win the respect of the people around them.  

And yet, subordinate individuals can resist excessive or exploitative dominance and thus limit the power of dominant individuals.  Subordinate individuals can form large coalitions to challenge those at the top of the hierarchy.

Men generally (on average) have a stronger desire for dominance in social hierarchies than do women.  Men compete for mating opportunities, and dominant men are generally more attractive to potential mates.

In a recent article published in The Quarterly Review of Biology, Noah Smith and Reuven Dukas have surveyed the evidence and arguments for the evolutionary psychology of social ranking in humans and other animals.  They identify five major dimensions of social ranking in humans and two subcategories for each dimension:  physical formidability (height and muscularity), social conventions (age and nepotism), physical attractiveness (symmetry and health), social competence (empathy and extraversion), and practical competence in complex skills (intelligence and perseverance).  Although I agree with them about these five dimensions, they have overlooked a sixth major dimension of social ranking--the counter-dominance of subordinates that can establish what Christopher Boehm called a "reverse-dominance hierarchy" or "egalitarian dominance," which corresponds to what Locke identified as the natural equality of human beings in the state of nature.

Let's consider each of these six dimensions of social ranking.

(1)  Physical formidability.  Many animals live in social hierarchies in which higher ranking individuals can claim priority in access to scarce resources (such as food and shelter) and opportunities for sexual mating (Wilson 1975; Tibbets et al. 2022).  This ranking is mostly determined by physical formidability, which is the ability of an individual to win a fight.  Those who win a fight are more likely to win the next fight.  Those who lose a fight are more likely to lose the next fight.  Those with a reputation as winners can usually avoid costly fights by acting assertively and deterring challengers.  Those with a reputation as losers avoid costly fights with those who seem to be winners.  Consequently, actual fighting is usually rare, because conflicts are often settled through ritualistic displays of dominance and submission without the violence of real fighting.

Although physical formidability is not as important for human ranking as it is for nonhuman animals, it does have some influence in human social ranking.  For example, height is a cue for physical formidability, and height is correlated with high status and leadership positions (Cheng and Tracy 2014; Zeng et al. 2022).  One illustration of this is that the Presidents of the United States have been generally taller than the average for men.  But some of this correlation between height and high status could be explained by the correlation of height with intelligence and cognitive ability, because nutritional status during childhood affects both height and cognitive development in adults (Lindqvist 2012).

(2)  Social conventions.  Age and nepotism are two social conventions for determining social status that are important for both nonhuman animals and human beings.  Adults rank higher than children, and often older adults rank higher than younger adults (Redhead and Power 2022).  Nepotism (the tendency to favor one's kin) also shapes social hierarchies in which one's social ranking depends on the ranking of one's family (Bellow 2004).

(3)  Physical attractiveness.  Physically attractive people tend to have a high social status.  They have more friends, higher incomes, and better jobs.  This is true for both men and women (Frevert and Walker 2014).  Despite the variability in the perceptions of physical beauty, there are some general patterns that are universal, such as the judgment that the bodily signs of health and vigor, the youthful nubility of women, and facial and bodily symmetry are physically attractive (Jones et al. 2001).

(4)  Social competence.  In all human societies, people recognized for their social competence have high social status.  Social competence is the skill for performing social tasks and handling social interactions--such as leading a social group or mediating social disputes.  This requires a mixture of social intelligence, sociable personality traits, and social experience.  Socially competent people show cognitive sympathy (understanding other people's mental states) and affective sympathy (responding to people's mental states with appropriate emotion).  They also show sociable personality traits such as extraversion (Dukas and Bailey 2024; Smith and Dukas 2024).

(5)  Practical competence in complex skills.  In hunter-gatherer societies, people have high social status when they show competence in complex tasks such as hunting and toolmaking (Henrich 2016).  In modern societies, people gain high status when they show professional expertise in providing all kinds of goods and services (Anderson and Willer 2014).

(6)  Counter-dominance.  Smith and Dukas fail to recognize the importance of counter-dominance for subordinate individuals who need to resist exploitative dominance by socially superior individuals.  In their analysis of the traits necessary for social competence, Smith and Dukas (2024:164) include "the ability to control the impressions that other people have of an individual, and the ability to manipulate others for personal gain," and in support of this idea, they cite Niccolo Machiavelli's Prince and the writing of Richard Christie and Florence Geis (1970) on the "Machiavellian personality."

But they do not notice that the longest chapter in Machiavelli's The Prince--Chapter 19 on "Of Avoiding Contempt and Hatred"--is about how princes who become hated by the people they rule open themselves up to conspiracies leading to their assassination.  Although the people don't want to rule, they don't want to be exploited by those who rule them, and they will resist exploitative rule, sometimes violently.  Frans de Waal saw that political assassination was also part of the Machiavellian politics of chimpanzees, in which resistance to exploitative rule established an "egalitarian hierarchy" in chimpanzee communities as opposed to a "despotic hierarchy."  

Christopher Boehm saw this in both chimpanzees and in the foraging ancestors of human beings--a natural tendency to counter-dominance--the natural propensity of individuals to resist being dominated.  Among some primates, subordinate individuals can resist excessive dominance and thus limit the power of dominant individuals.  Subordinate individuals can form large coalitions to challenge those at the top of the hierarchy.

Locke saw this natural resistance to exploitative dominance in the evolutionary state of nature as the natural support for an egalitarian hierarchy, in which some have higher status and power than others, and yet all men are naturally equal in their liberty to live without being ruled by anyone without their consent.


REFERENCES

Anderson, C., and R. Willer.  2014. "Do Status Hierarchies Benefit Groups?  A Bounded Functionalist Account of Status."  In The Psychology of Social Status, eds. J. T. Cheng, J. L. Tracy, and C. Anderson, pp. 47-70.  New York: Springer.

Bellow, Adam.  2004.  In Praise of Nepotism: A History of Family Enterprise from King David to George W. Bush.  New York: Knopf Doubleday.

Brown, Donald.  1991.  Human Universals.  Philadelphia: Temple University Press.

Cheng, J. T., and J. L. Tracy.  2014.  "Toward a Unified Science of Hierarchy: Dominance and Prestige Are Two Fundamental Pathways to Human Social Rank."  In The Psychology of Social Status, eds. J. T. Cheng, J. L. Tracy, and C. Anderson, pp. 3-27.  New York: Springer.

Christie, Richard, and Florence Geis.  1970.  Studies in Machiavellianism.  New York: Academic Press.

Dukas, R., and N. Bailey.  2024.  "Evolutionary Biology of Social Expertise." Biological Reviews https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.13115.

Frevert, T. K., and L. S. Walker. 2014. "Physical Attractiveness and Social Status."  Sociology Compass 8:313-323.

Henrich, Joseph.  2016.  The Secret of Our Success: How Culture is Driving Human Evolution, Domesticating Our Species, and Making Us Smarter.  Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Jones, B. C., et al.  2001.  "Facial Symmetry and Judgments of Apparent Health: Support for a 'Good Genes' Explanation of the Attractiveness-Symmetry Relationship."  Evolution and Human Behavior 22 (November): 417-429.

Lindqvist, Erik.  2012.  "Height and Leadership."  Review of Economics and Statistics 94:1191-1196.

Redhead, D., and E. A. Power.  2022.  "Social Hierarchies and Social Networks in Humans."  Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 377:20200440.

Smith, Noah M. T., and Reuven Dukas.  2024.  "Winner and Loser Effects and Social Rank in Humans."  The Quarterly Review of Biology 99:157-174.

Tibbets, E. A., et al.  2022.  "The Establishment and Maintenance of Dominance Hierarchies."  Philosophical Transactions for the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 377:20200450.

Wilson, Edward O.  1975.  Sociobiology: The New Synthesis.  Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

Zeng, T. C., J. T. Cheng, and J. Henrich.  2022.  "Dominance in Humans."  Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 377:20200451.

Thursday, August 15, 2024

The Catholic Integralist Critique of Locke on Toleration: The Holy Spirit Cannot Overcome Religious Pluralism


Pope Gregory I (the Great), Pope from 590 to 604.  He is Writing in his Study.  The Holy Spirit as a Pentecostal Dove Whispers in His Ear.  Below, Scribes Copy His Work.  A Tenth-Century Ivory, Kunsthistorisches Museum, Vienna.

 

I have long argued that the desire for religious understanding is one of the twenty natural desires of our evolved human nature.  If the good is the desirable, then we can judge the goodness of a social order by how well it secures the conditions for human beings to pursue the satisfaction of those natural desires. 

The Catholic Integralists say that a Catholic Integralist regime is the best social order because it enforces belief in the one true religion in a Catholic confessional state, and thus satisfies the natural desire for religious understanding.  But they are mistaken because they fail to see that the evolved natural desire for religious understanding is pluralistic in that human beings will always disagree in what they believe to be the true religious experience of the transcendent world.  And there has never been a divine revelation of the religious truth clear enough to bring religious believers to agreement.  Whatever the Holy Spirit might have whispered to Pope Gregory the Great was not clearly heard by others.

The evolutionary science of religious pluralism supports John Locke's liberal theology of Christianity--that since "everyone is orthodox to himself," and "every Church is orthodox to itself," there is no set of universal doctrines binding on all Christians, except perhaps the belief that Jesus is the Messiah; and therefore, there is no one orthodoxy strictly speaking that can be properly enforced by government.  

For this reason, a Lockean liberal social order that secures religious liberty and religious toleration is the best regime for promoting the pluralistic pursuit of religious happiness.  It does this by creating a marketplace of religion in which churches compete for customers, and those churches that best satisfy the desire for religious experience increase their share of the market.  I have elaborated this argument in some previous posts.

But I haven't yet responded to Derek Remus's integralist critique of Locke's Letter Concerning Toleration.  This was originally published at the website for The Josias, the main online outlet for integralism, and then published in print in Integralism and the Common Good: Selected Essays from The Josias, volume 2: The Two Powers, edited by P. Edmund Waldstein (Brooklyn, NY: Angelico Press, 2022), 335-371.  Remus first wrote this paper as an undergraduate thesis at Thomas Aquinas College (Santa Paula, California).  Father Remus is now an Associate Pastor at St. Luke's Catholic Church in Calgary, Canada.

Remus's introduction to his paper is a brief history of Christianity and the relation between church and state.  He then states his thesis--that the Catholic Church is right about the proper relation between church and state, and Locke is wrong.

To support this thesis, the main body of his paper has three parts:  a summary of Locke's claims in A Letter Concerning Toleration, an exposition and defense of the Catholic Church's position on church and state that relies largely on Thomas Aquinas's teaching, and then a Catholic refutation of Locke's position.  

Finally, Remus adds an Appendix on the question of whether the Catholic integralist understanding of church and state can be defended in the modern world where Catholics are in the minority in many Western countries (such as the United States).

I will respond to each of these parts of his paper.  My references to Locke's Letter Concerning Toleration will be to the Liberty Fund edition edited by Mark Goldie (2010).


THE HISTORY OF CHRISTIANITY AND THE STATE

Remus's first two paragraphs survey the first 1600 years of the history of Christianity in relation to the state:

"The first three centuries of the Catholic Church's existence were a period of violent and bloody persecution at the hands of the Roman Empire--that is, the state.  The Church persevered through this trial, however, and, instead of diminishing, increased in proportion to the persecutions she suffered, until at last she was granted freedom of worship and hers was made the official religion of the Empire.  This was the beginning of that harmonious union between Church and state which gave rise to Christendom--a union in which the state recognized that its proper good was ordered toward a higher good, namely, eternal beatitude, and the Church, to the extent that affairs of state bore upon the salvation of souls, was solicitous about those affairs."

"This union lasted throughout Europe for twelve hundred years.  Then came the Protestant Reformation.  The divine origin of the papacy was challenged; the religious unity of Europe was shattered; Christendom unraveled.  The Church still existed, however, and the question of how governments ought to deal with her under the new order of things became an urgent problem for political philosophers" (335).

Remus then notes that while political philosophers like Hobbes and Spinoza thought the head of state should also be the head of the Church to ensure religious peace, Locke thought there should be a separation of church and state, with the church devoted to the salvation of souls in the afterlife, and the state devoted to securing the earthly goods of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.  Moreover, Locke thought the state should tolerate all religions except when religious doctrines or practices threatened the peace of the community.

Remus observes that the United States has clearly adopted the Lockean position through Locke's influence on American Founders like Thomas Jefferson who insisted on "a wall of separation between Church and State."  Consequently, many American Catholics have adopted the Lockean view of church-state relations as the ideal that all nations should follow.

But this kind of thinking, Remus asserts, is "clearly opposed to that of the Church's Magisterium."  The "Magisterium" of the Catholic Church is its "teaching" function--the authority of the Church through the popes and the bishops to truthfully interpret the revealed Word of God as conveyed through the Bible and the Church's tradition.  So, here, Remus interprets the Church's Magisterium on the relation between Church and state by quoting from the papal pronouncements of three popes--Pius IX (1846-1878), Leo XIII (1878-1903), and Pius XI (1922-1939).  They all agree, in the words of Leo XIII, that the state is bound by divine law to support the "public profession of religion . . . not such religion as [men] may have a preference for, but the religion which God enjoins, and which certain and most clear marks show to be the only true religion"--the religion of the Catholic Church (337).  Here Remus is quoting from the encyclical Immortale Dei (par. 6).  This shows, then, that Locke is wrong in arguing for the separation of church and state, because this contradicts the Catholic Church's teaching.

In this introductory section of his paper, Remus makes three dubious claims.  The first is that from the beginning of Christianity, the Catholic Church has been "the Church," the only Church, because it is the only truly Christian Church, or even "the only true religion," as Leo XIII declared, as confirmed by "certain and most clear marks."  

This denies the historical fact of religious pluralism in Christianity.  Contrary to Remus's assumption that there was no religious pluralism in Christianity prior to the Protestant Reformation, the history of Christianity beginning with the first Christians has been a history of disagreement over Christian doctrines and practices as manifest in the many schisms and heresies among Christians.  A Christian schism is when one Christian group divides into two groups that cannot live together as one religious community.  A Christian heresy is one Christian's religious belief that is considered false by other Christians.

Beginning in the early history of the Christian Church, there have been constant battles with one group of heretics after another.  For example, between AD 150 (with the Marcionist schism) and 1054 (with the Great Schism that separated the Latin Church in the West from the Greek Orthodox Church in the East), there were at least twenty-two major schisms in Christianity.

The Church Councils that met during the first five centuries of Christianity were called to rule against the numerous heresies that sprang up, many of which had to do with how to understand the place of Jesus Christ in the Trinity.  The first Council of Nicaea in 325 ruled against Arianism--the anti-Trinitarianism of Arius, an Alexandrian priest, who believed that while Jesus was the Son of God, he was not equal to God.  The Council of Ephesus in 431 ruled against Nestorianism--the teaching of Nestorius, the patriarch of Constantinople, that the incarnate Christ had two separate natures--one divine and the other human--and that Mary was only the mother of the human Jesus, and thus not the Mother of God.  The Council of Chalcedon in 451 ruled against the view of the Coptic Churches that Christ had only one divine nature (monophysitism) and in favor of the view that Christ had two distinct natures, one divine and one human, but united in one person (dyophysitism).  The Coptic Churches continue today in North Africa, the Near East, and Ethiopia.

Surveying the entire history of Christianity, Wikipedia has lists of over 50 schisms and over 40 heresies.  That's what I mean by religious pluralism in Christianity.  Later in his paper, Remus speaks of "that great achievement of contemporary man called religious pluralism" (370), as if there had been no religious pluralism until recently.  But that is obviously not true.

This religious pluralism in Christianity also denies Remus's second dubious claim in his introductory section--that there was a "harmonious union between Church and state" that sustained Christendom for twelve hundred years prior to the Protestant Reformation.  Beginning with Constantine, rulers who tried to enforce Catholic orthodoxy, often through violent coercion, were frustrated by the heresies and schisms that made it impossible to sustain any "harmonious union" of Christians.

In 313, the Roman Emperor Constantine I issued the Edict of Milan that granted religious freedom: Christianity and all other religions would be free from persecution.  Later, in 380, the Emperor Theodosius I issued the Edict of Thessalonica that declared Christianity as defined by the Nicene Creed of 325 as the official religion of the Empire; and those who disagreed with any part of the Nicene Creed--such as the Arians who denied that Jesus was of "the same essence" as God--could be punished by the Church and the state.  But the debate over trinitarian theology--often a violent debate--continued to fester for centuries.  These and other theological disputes created a religious pluralism among Christians that neither the Church nor the state could suppress.  Remus is silent about all of this theological conflict within Christianity.

The irresolvable problem of religious pluralism in Christianity eventually forced the Catholic Church in the Second Vatican Council to issue the "Declaration on Religious Freedom" or Dignitatis Humanae in 1965, which endorsed the human right to religious liberty and thus embraced the Lockean argument for religious toleration.  This denied the teaching of Leo XIII that divine law requires the state to enforce Catholicism as the true religion.  

This refutes the third dubious claim in Remus's introduction to this paper--the claim that the Church's Magisterium opposes Lockean religious liberty.  Strangely, however, Remus never even mentions Dignitatis Humanae anywhere in his paper.

Remus might agree with Thomas Pink's argument that Dignitatis Humanae was a change in policy but not a change in doctrine.  Pink explains: "The Church is now refusing to license the state to act as her coercive agent, and it is from that policy change, and not from any change in underlying doctrine, that the wrongfulness of religious coercion by the state follows."  The unchanged doctrine is that while the state has no authority on its own to coerce religious belief, because the ultimate authority over religious belief belongs to the Church, the Church can authorize the state to act as the "secular arm" of the Church in enforcing religious belief.  In particular, the Church can ask the state to punish those baptized Christians who have been condemned by the Church as heretics, apostates, or schismatics.  

Pink relies heavily on a passage in the first section of Dignitatis Humanae: "Religious freedom, in turn, which men demand as necessary to fulfill their duty to worship God, has to do with immunity from coercion in civil society.  Therefore, it leaves unchanged (integram) traditional Catholic doctrine on the moral duty of men and societies toward the true religion and toward the one Church of Christ."  Pink infers that if "traditional Catholic doctrine" remains "unchanged" by Dignitatis Humanae, that must mean that the traditional doctrine about the Church's authority to use the state as the "secular arm" of the Church in coercing religious belief has not been changed by Vatican II.  That Remus agrees with Pink about this is perhaps suggested by the fact that Remus's paper in Integralism and the Common Good is immediately preceded by a paper by Pink, and both papers are in a section of the book with the title "Religious Liberty."

As I have argued, there are lots of problems with Pink's reading of Dignitatis Humanae.  One is that there is no reference anywhere in Dignitatis Humanae to the "secular arm" doctrine of the Catholic Church.  Another problem is that when the Catechism of the Catholic Church (2105) quotes the passage about the "unchanged traditional Catholic doctrine on the moral duty of men and societies toward the true religion," the Catechism explains this as affirming the moral duty of the Church to be "constantly evangelizing men," and nothing is said about the possibility of using a "secular arm" to coerce Catholic faith.  Remus is silent about all of this.


LOCKE'S FIVE ARGUMENTS FOR TOLERATION

In summarizing Locke's Letter Concerning Toleration, Remus correctly identifies four of Locke's main arguments (341-42).  But he fails to recognize the importance of a fifth argument, which is actually Locke's primary argument.  

Remus also fails to see the importance of Locke's numerous references to the New Testament as providing crucial scriptural support for his arguments.  Unlike Locke, Remus provides almost no scriptural support for his arguments--he quotes from the New Testament only once.  Consequently, Remus seems unwilling or unable to refute Locke's claim that the New Testament teaches liberal toleration.

Locke makes four arguments for why the state (or "Commonwealth" as Locke calls it) secures only the "civil interests" or "civil goods" in caring for "the things of this World," and therefore it must be separated from the churches that secure the salvation of souls in "the World to come."

First, the care of souls has not be committed to any civil magistrate by anyone--neither by God nor by consent of the people (LCT, 13).

Second, "the care of Souls cannot belong to the Civil Magistrate, because his Power consists only in outward force: But true and saving Religion consists in the inward persuasion of the Mind; without which nothing can be acceptable to God" (LCT, 13).

Third, even if outward force could influence people's religious beliefs, this would not necessarily lead to the salvation of their souls, because given "the variety and contradiction of Opinions in Religion" among political rulers, most rulers would favor false religions that would lead to the eternal damnation of most people (LCT, 14-15).

Fourth, the duty of the magistrate to secure the civil interests of everyone does not require enforcing any religious belief, because my neighbor's religious beliefs do not affect my civil interests (LCT, 20, 37, 44-46).  Thomas Jefferson expressed this Lockean argument for religious liberty in a memorable way: "The legitimate powers of government extend to such acts only as are injurious to others.  But it does me no injury for my neighbor to say there are twenty gods, or no god.  It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg" (Notes on Virginia, Query XVII).

Although Remus rightly identifies these four arguments, he ignores Locke's primary argument set forth in the first pages of the Letter Concerning Toleration--that toleration is "the chief Characteristical Mark of the True Church," because "every one is Orthodox to himself," and Jesus taught Christians to show "Charity, Meekness, and Good-will in general towards all Mankind," so that the "Toleration of those that differ from others in Matters of Religion, is . . . agreeable to the Gospel of Jesus Christ" (7-12).

To prove this, Locke quotes from the New Testament 6 times in this introductory section, and a total of 14 times in the whole of the Letter Concerning Toleration.  He also quotes from the Old Testament 5 times in order to contrast the Mosaic theocracy of the Old Testament and the religious liberty of the New Testament.  The "Commonwealth of the Jews" was an "absolute Theocracy," so that there was no difference between the Commonwealth and the Church; and "God himself was the Legislator."  "But there is absolutely no such thing, under the Gospel, as a Christian Commonwealth," because Jesus "instituted no Commonwealth."  "Nor put he the Sword into any Magistrate's Hand, with Commission to make use of it in forcing men to forsake their former Religion, and receive his" (42).

As I have argued in previous posts, the proponents of early modern classical liberalism like Locke could plausibly read the New Testament as teaching religious toleration and religious liberty.  Remarkably, Remus is silent about all this.  He quotes from the Bible only once when he quotes Matthew 28:19: "Going therefore, teach ye all nations; baptizing them in the name of the Father, and of the Son, and of the Holy Ghost" (357).  So, he never attempts to refute Locke's interpretation of the Bible.

Last year, I wrote about how the coronation of King Charles III of Great Britain showed the acceptance of Locke's liberal interpretation of New Testament Christianity as supporting toleration and religious liberty. 


REMUS'S REDUCED INTEGRALISM

After explaining Locke's account of the separation of church and state, Remus turns to "the way things really are," or to "the truth about Church and state" as taught by the Catholic Church.  This is a teaching about "the primacy of the common good," and defending this teaching must move through five steps, as explained by "the Common Doctor of the Church, St. Thomas Aquinas" (337, 346-47).

First, Remus shows how the common good is preferable to the private good.

Second, he shows how the end of the state is the political common good.

Third, he shows how religion promotes the political common good.

Fourth, he shows how the end of the Church established by Christ is the common good of eternal beatitude.

Fifth, the rulers of the state are subject to the rulers of the Catholic Church in so far as the lower common good of politics must serve the higher common good of eternal beatitude.

Although Remus does not explicitly say that this teaching is Catholic Integralism, it clearly is.  But what's remarkable about Remus's account of this teaching is that it is a reduced Catholic Integralism.  A full Catholic Integralism, such as found in the teaching of Thomas Aquinas and in the history of the Catholic Church prior to Dignitatis Humanae in 1965, includes the claim that the Catholic Church has the divine right to employ the state as its secular arm in persecuting and even killing heretics.  Remus rejects this claim because he agrees with Locke about "the unjustness of using the state to kill and persecute one's neighbor on account of religion" (338, 362).  Although he does not explicitly explain to his reader what he is doing, Remus is reducing or revising the Catholic tradition of integralism by rejecting the traditional integralist claim that the Church is divinely commanded to persecute and even kill heretics.

The clearest indication of what Remus is doing is in his selective reading of Thomas Aquinas and of the history of the Catholic Church's persecution of heretics.  Remus is silent about Aquinas's endorsement of the Inquisition.  Aquinas taught that heretics--those who claim to be Christians but deny some of the doctrines of the Church--can be rightly compelled to keep the faith.  Heretics must be given repeated chances to recant their heretical beliefs, but if they refuse, they can be rightly executed (ST, II-II, q. 10, aa. 8, 11; q. 11, a. 3).  Aquinas cannot cite any passages from the New Testament that condone the killing of heretics, because as Locke pointed out, there are none.  Remus says nothing about this.

Remus also says nothing about the history of the Catholic Churches execution of heretics.  For example, in 1415, Jan Hus, a Catholic priest who sought to reform the Church, was condemned by the Council of Constance to be burned at the stake for heresy.  He sang hymns as he was burned to death.  Hus was a charismatic priest who inspired his followers in Bohemia to defeat five consecutive papal crusades against them from 1420 to 1431--the Hussite Wars.  Hus and the Hussites were intensely pious Christians.  Similarly, Martin Luther and the other Protestant Reformers were all intensely pious.  Thus does the mystical experience of grace--of being divinely inspired with an experience of the transcendent--often move Christians to dissent from Catholic orthodoxy.

Remus says nothing about this.  He claims that God's revealed truth is conveyed to believers by the "grace of the Holy Spirit" (356).  But he is silent about how pious Christians like Jan Hus and the Protestant Reformers were inspired by the Holy Spirit to dissent from the Catholic Church, which exposed them to the violence of the Inquisition.  This shows that the grace of the Holy Spirit cannot overcome religious pluralism by conveying the message of revelation so clearly that all or most believers can agree on that revealed truth.

Remus also says nothing about how some of the recent popes--John Paul II and Benedict XVI--have asked forgiveness for the Church's history of violence against heretics.


A REFUTATION OF LOCKE'S "GODLESS STATE"?

Remus begins his paper by promising his readers that he will refute Locke's position on church and state in the light of the Church's position.  But when Remus comes to that part of his paper, his supposed refutation of Locke's "godless state" actually agrees with Locke on some crucial points, which explains why his reduced Integralism is so different from the Church's traditional Integralism.

As already indicated, Remus agrees with Locke that it is unjust to persecute and kill people because of their religious beliefs.  He also says that "the Catholic Church agrees with Locke that it is unjust for the state to force its citizens to perform acts whereby they become members of a given religion, even if that religion is the true one" (362).  The reason for this is that Locke is right in saying that faith is not real if it depends on "outward force" without "inward and full persuasion of the mind."

But still, Remus observes, Locke is wrong not to see how even though the coercive force of the state cannot influence the mind and will directly, that force can influence the mind and will indirectly by creating social conditions that help Catholic citizens fortify their faith and become more effective in persuading non-Catholic citizens to become Catholics. 

Remus says that "in a nation where most people are Catholic," and the rulers are Catholic, there are four ways in which the state can rightly use force to indirectly favor the Catholic Church without directly forcing anyone to become a Catholic (360, 362).   The state can refuse to give marriage licenses to Catholics who have been married in a non-Catholic marriage ceremony, because according to the Catholic Church, this is not a real marriage.  The state can require that students in state schools are instructed in the Catholic faith.  The state can prohibit the building of non-Catholic schools.  And, finally, "the state also has the right to prohibit the propagation of opinions in the press which are opposed to its citizens' attainment of heaven, such as opinions that are blasphemous or constitute an attack on the Church" (360).  This is what I mean by Remus's reduced Catholic Integralism: the state uses force to favor the Catholic Church, but without the killing of people for public heresy and blasphemy that was part of traditional Integralism.

But notice that Remus recommends this only for countries where the majority of the citizens are Catholic, and the rulers are Catholic.  Why couldn't Protestants turn this argument around to say that these same four ways for the state to enforce religious belief could be used to enforce a Protestant religion in countries where most of the people and the rulers are Protestant?

In fact, that was the argument of the High Church Anglican Protestant Jonas Proast, who wrote three tracts criticizing Locke's Letter Concerning Toleration, which provoked a prolonged debate between Proast and Locke.  Like Remus, Proast argued that while Locke was right in saying that the mind cannot directly be coerced into religious belief, Locke failed to see how legal coercion with moderate penalties without persecution could indirectly dispose men's minds to submit to religious instruction.  Also like Remus, Proast insisted that this use of legal coercion to enforce religion was proper only for enforcing the "true religion."  But, of course, for Proast, the evidence clearly showed that Anglicanism was the true religion, and Catholicism was a false religion.  (Proast's three tracts are available in the 5th volume of The Reception of Locke's Politics, edited by Mark Goldie [London: Pickering and Chatto, 1999], 25-128.)

Here's Remus's response: "To say that the state has a care of souls and that it has a duty to worship God, however, is not to say that the state may adopt whatever religion it happens to like or even judges to be true.  Rather, it is to say that the state has a duty to adopt the religion which has truly been revealed by God, namely, the Catholic religion" (363).  Remus then quotes from Leo XIII's Immortale Dei (1885), saying that "it is evident that the only true religion is the one established by Jesus Christ Himself, and which He committed to His Church to protect and to propagate."  Remus does not notice, however, that Leo cited many New Testament verses as supporting this claim.

The most important New Testament text for Leo and other Integralists as establishing Catholicism as the true religion was Matthew 16:18-19, where Jesus says to Peter: "And I say also unto thee, That thou art Peter, and upon this rock I will build my church; and the gates of hell shall not prevail against it.  And I will give unto thee the keys of the kingdom of heaven: and whatsoever thou shalt bind on earth shall be bound in heaven: and whatsoever thou shalt loose on earth shall be loosed in heaven."  The Latin version of these words is inscribed around the base of the dome of the Basilica of St. Peter in Rome, in letters six feet high.  On these few words rests the entire structure of the Roman Catholic Church.  Catholics interpret these words as teaching that the Apostle Peter was chosen by Jesus Christ Himself to be the first pope--the Bishop of Rome--and all the other popes have been the direct successors of Peter as the Bishop of Rome, and thus have had the papal authority granted originally by Jesus.

                                                      The Dome of St. Peter's Basilica


Remarkably, Remus says nothing about Matthew 16:18-19.  Locke denies that Jesus ever conferred on any bishop of a church "Ruling Authority derived from the very Apostles, and continued down unto the present times by an uninterrup0ted Succession" (16).  But, oddly, Locke never mentions Matthew 16:18-19.

Locke could have argued that there are good reasons to doubt the Catholic interpretation of these verses.  First of all, these words in the Gospel of Matthew do not appear in any of the other Gospels, which should make one suspicious.  Secondly, it's not clear what Jesus meant by these words.  The word for "church" (ecclesia) occurs only twice in the four Gospels, and it's not clear that Jesus was really thinking about founding a church.  Moreover, Jesus says nothing about Peter having an endless number of successors who would inherit his apostolic authority; and Jesus says nothing about there being bishops in Rome.  And one would think that Jerusalem would be more important than Rome for Jesus.  Furthermore, there is no evidence in the New Testament that Peter ever went to Rome.  There is no contemporary reference to Peter as having been a bishop in Rome.  And the first indications of there being a bishop in Rome come from the second century.

What is said in the New Testament about the first Christian churches confirm Locke's claim that they were "voluntary and free societies" that did not use violent coercion to enforce belief, although they did excommunicate those they deemed deviants from church norms.  And while these churches had bishops, there is no evidence that there was a strict hierarchy of bishops with the bishop of Rome enforcing orthodoxy on all the churches.

So, again, it seems that the New Testament teaches the classical liberal principles of religious liberty and religious toleration.


INTEGRALIST CATHOLICS ARE INTOLERABLE

In his Appendix, Remus responds to the objection that in modern countries like the United States with religious pluralism, and where Catholics are in the minority, it seems absurd to propose that the Catholic Church should be the established church enforced by the state.  Remus's answer is that yes, in these circumstances, a Catholic confessional state is not practicable, and so it would be imprudent for the Catholic Church to insist that the governments in these countries should subject themselves to the religious rule of the Catholic Church.

Nevertheless, Remus argues, the imprudence of doing this does not deny the truth of what he has said about the proper relationship between the Church and the state.  Consequently, Catholics are obligated to strive to win as many converts to Catholicism as they can, as they work toward achieving the social and political power over their societies that will someday allow the Catholics to establish the rule of the Catholic Church and to use legal force to restrict the religious freedom of non-Catholics.

Locke argued that churches that do not teach and practice religious tolerance of other religions cannot themselves be tolerated.  Remus agrees!  "A government which holds in principle that it must treat all religions within its domain equally and that those religions must in turn refrain from any intervention in politics cannot tolerate the Catholic Church and be consistent with itself" (371).

Amazingly, the final conclusion of Remus's argument for Catholic Integralism and against Lockean toleration is that Lockean liberal regimes like the United States must not tolerate Catholic Integralists.