The Holy Spirit Will Fail to Overcome Religious Pluralism at the Papal Conclave

Pope Francis died on April 21 at the age of 88.  The papal conclave to select the new pope must begin between 15 and 20 days after his death, which will be sometime between May 6 and May 11.  

On the first morning of the conclave, the cardinals will assemble in Saint Peter's Basilica to celebrate Mass.  In the afternoon, they will process to the Sistine Chapel while singing Veni Creator Spiritus ("Come, Creator Spirit"), which is an old Christian hymn that invokes the Holy Spirit as it descended upon the Apostles in Jerusalem at Pentecost, which is considered the beginning of the Christian Church (described in the second chapter of Acts).  Christians believe that this fulfilled Christ's promise to send the Holy Spirit to all believers, and this inspiration by the Holy Spirit would reveal God's truth to all faithful believers.

If this is true, then we would expect the Holy Spirit to reveal to the cardinals and to all Christians who is to be the true apostolic successor to Saint Peter as the Head of the True Church.  It is easy to predict, however, that this will not happen.  The Holy Spirit's message will not be revealed to all the cardinals, who will disagree as to who should be the next pope.  And even if most Catholics accept the election of the new pope, the non-Catholic Christians will not.           

As I have argued previously, the Holy Spirit cannot overcome religious pluralism by revealing the one true church for all believers.  This shows that the evolved natural desire for religious transcendence is pluralistic in that human beings will always disagree in what they believe to be the true religious experience of the transcendent world.  There has never been a divine revelation of the religious truth clear enough to bring religious believers to agreement.  This confirms Locke's argument that since "every church is orthodox to itself," government must practice religious toleration, so that every church is a voluntary association that cannot rightly employ force in compelling belief in its orthodoxy.

                                                        

 

This belief in the Holy Spirit is beautifully conveyed in the pictures above from St. Peter's Basilica.  These images are from the apse at the end of the central nave.  There is an online virtual reality tour of the apse.

In the center of the apse is the Altar of the Chair of St. Peter.  Peter is the "rock" of the Church through whom has passed the apostolic succession linking the popes to Christ.  Beneath the Chair are four huge statues (over 16 feet tall).  The two outer statues are figures of the Latin Church: St. Ambrose and St. Augustine (in the bottom picture above).  The two inner statues are of two Doctors of the Greek Church:  St. Athanasius and St. John Chrysostom.  Thus, it is suggested that these theologians from both the Latin and Greek churches have a consistent teaching that is descended from the Apostles through Peter.

Above the Chair of Peter is a brilliant dove that is a symbol of the Holy Spirit, who guides the Church through Peter, his papal successors, and the theologians to the truth of revelation.

Pope Gregory I (the Great), Pope from 590 to 604.  He is Writing in his Study.  The Holy Spirit as a Pentecostal Dove Whispers in His Ear.  Below, Scribes Copy His Work.  A Tenth-Century Ivory, Kunsthistorisches Museum, Vienna.

In the history of the Catholic Church, there has been disagreement over the best procedure for choosing a new pope that allows for the intervention of the Holy Spirit.  In the first thousand years of the Church, the selection of the Bishop of Rome, who became the Pope, was by acclamation or the consensus of the clergy and laity in Rome.  (For this history, see Frederic J. Baumgartner, Behind Locked Doors: A History of Papal Elections [New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2003].)

As Pope Pius XII indicated in his bull Vacantis Apostolicae Sedis (December 8, 1945), this mode of acclamation was considered the best sign of quasi afflati Spiritu Sancton ("as if by the inspiration of the Holy Spirit") (par. 66).  Surely, a clear revelation by inspiration of the Holy Spirit would be manifest in the unanimity of the clergy and laity in Rome.

But then, in 1059, the Church decided that the College of Cardinals should be the electors of the Pope.  Some factions in the Church wanted a unanimous decision from the cardinals, but since this was usually impossible, the Church had to decide how to resolve disagreements.  One method was "compromise," where the College of Cardinals would agree to appoint a small group of cardinals with the right to make the decision for the entire College.

A third method was to allow the cardinals to decide by either a simple majority of votes or by a super majority of two-thirds.

The current procedure that will govern the coming papal conclave was set down by Pope John Paul II in his bull Universi Dominici Gregis (February 22, 1996), which was slightly revised by Pope Benedict XVI.  John Paul said that the cardinals should "accept the interior movements of the Holy Spirit."  But he rejected the method of election by acclamation, which he called quasi ex inspiratione ("as if by inspiration"), because "it is no longer an apt means of interpreting the thought of an electoral college so great in number and so diverse in origin."  Thus, he rejected as unrealistic the possibility that the "interior movements of the Holy Spirit" could inspire unanimity in the cardinals' decision.

He also rejected the method of "compromise"--appointing a select group of cardinals to decide--because he wanted all the electors to express their choice personally.

This left the third procedure--election by secret ballot with the decision made by majority vote.  John Paul favored a simple majority.  But Benedict changed this to a two-thirds supermajority.

John Paul says that the cardinals should pray for "the assistance of Almighty God and the enlightenment of the Holy Spirit," so that they will be "likeminded in their task."  But clearly he did not expect that the "likemindedness" induced by the inspiration of the Holy Spirit could secure unanimity.  

Isn't it obvious that the voting of the papal conclave in May will be decided not by the Holy Spirit but by Church politics?  On the one side are the liberals (or progressives) who want to continue the left-wing Catholicism of Francis.  On the other side are the conservatives (or traditionalists) who want to revive the traditionalism of John Paul II and Benedict XVI.  In the middle are the centrists (or moderates), who will probably decide the election.  Donald Trump will surely be endorsing Cardinal Raymond Burke, a conservative who has supported Trump.

One might have assumed that the most traditionalist Catholics would want to claim that the conclave will be decided by the "interior movements of the Holy Spirit" in the minds of the cardinals.  But even the traditionalist Catholics are analyzing the upcoming conclave as if it were a purely political expression of Machiavellian church politics.

For example, the "Catholic Family News" is one of the staunchest traditionalist publications, and yet in the April 2025 there is an article by Serre Verweij on "Decisive Cardinals During the Upcoming Conclave," which explains the various factions at work here--conservatives, moderates, and liberals--and argues that if the conservatives can persuade most of the moderates to vote for an "orthodox candidate," then the next Pope will almost certainly be conservative.  Nothing is said about the Holy Spirit's influence in the conclave.

This confirms Locke's claim that not just "every church is orthodox to itself," but even "every man is orthodox to himself," so that even within the Catholic Church, the conservative Catholics think themselves more orthodox than the liberal Catholics.  Religious pluralism is manifest within every church.