Thursday, November 10, 2022

The End of History (Again?). Trump, Putin, and the Triumph of Liberal Democracy

 


The New York Post has been Donald Trump's favorite newspaper.  I am sure this cover and the article by John Podhoretz has added to his outraged reaction to the midterm elections.  As Podhoretz points out, in every case where a Republican won a primary because of Trump's endorsement, that candidate lost.  

Two of the examples are in my home state of Michigan and in my third congressional district.  Tudor Dixon won the Republican primary for governor and John Gibbs won the Republican primary for the third congressional district because they got Trump's endorsement, and he endorsed them because they enthusiastically affirmed Trump's Big Lie about the stolen 2020 election and embraced the overturning of Roe v. Wade by Trump's Supreme Court.  Both lost.  Dixon lost to Gretchen Whitmer, who had become unpopular with many Michiganders, particularly because of her hard lockdown orders during the pandemic.  Gibbs lost to Hillary Scholten, even though Scholten had lost to Peter Meijer by 7% of the vote in 2020.  Trump wanted to punish Meijer for being one of the Republican congressmen who voted to impeach Trump.  This is the first time in 30 years that Grand Rapids has elected a Democrat as its congressional representative.  This is also the first time almost 40 years that all levels of the Michigan state government--the Governor, the top state executives, and both houses of the legislature--are controlled by the Democratic Party. 

The two primary reasons for these two candidates and other Trump-endorsed candidates losing are their denial of a woman's constitutional right to choose an abortion and their endorsement of Trump's attempt to overturn the 2020 election.  In Michigan and other states, voters have supported referendums in favor of abortion rights.  In all five of the states where there were referendums on abortion rights (Michigan, California, Kentucky, Montana, and Vermont), the voters favored the constitutional right to reproductive freedom.  Voters have also been disgusted by Trump's attack on electoral democracy.  As indicated in opinion polls, these were two of the top issues for many voters.

I had predicted that the overturning of Roe by Trump's Supreme Court would be a disaster for the Republican Party, because this was the first time in the history of the Court that it has overturned a long-settled constitutional liberty.  I had also predicted that American Lockean liberal democracy would prevail over Trump's illiberal populist demagoguery.

This confirms what I have said in support of Francis Fukuyama's announcement in 1989 of the "end of history"--that it has become clear that in the human search for the best social order, liberal democracy has prevailed over all the illiberal and undemocratic alternatives.  In recent years, it has been common for political commentators to say that the popularity of the illiberal nationalism of people like Trump and Vladimir Putin proves that Fukuyama was wrong, because it shows that people around the world are turning against liberal democracy.

Putin has attacked "the liberal idea," and he has praised Trump for turning America against liberalism.  Putin has also defended his invasion of Ukraine as part of his striving for a "Eurasian Empire" that will challenge the Western liberal order.  Eurasian nationalists like Alexander Dugin have provided the philosophic defense of Putin's invasion as part of the global expansion of illiberalism.  But I have argued that Ukraine's victory over the Russian invaders will vindicate the powerful appeal of liberal democracy in the battle against illiberal autocracy.

The events of the last few days have presented new evidence for this.  The Russian military commanders have announced that they are retreating from Kherson--another sign that Ukraine is winning the war.

At the same time, on Monday, some Russian oligarchs publicly bragged about how yes, of course, they have interfered in U.S. elections to help the Trump Republicans, and they have continued to do this in the midterm elections.  But then, yesterday, it was reported that Russian TV commentators are expressing their shock that the Trump Republican "red wave" has become hardly a ripple.

Fukuyama should publish a new article entitled "The End of History--Again."

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