Over the past two months, I have argued that the victory of Trump's MAGA movement is Janus-faced. The liberal face of the movement is manifest in the multiracial and multiethnic coalition of Trump voters and in the liberal pluralism of Trump's Inaugural Address. But the illiberal face of the movement was displayed at the inauguration by the prominence of the billionaires seated behind Trump, which suggested that Trump might be headed towards Curtis Yarvin's fascism of dictatorial rule by a multibillionaire CEO.
Now, in the first two weeks of Trump's presidency, we have seen that the illiberal face of Yarvin's fascism has prevailed, and it's the face of Elon Musk taking over the U.S. Government, which is exactly the multibillionaire oligarchy proposed by Yarvin. (Doesn't Musk look like the perfect James Bond villain--the world's richest man who wants to take over the Earth and then Mars? Where's James Bond when we need him most?)
Whether this exercise of fascist power can be stopped will depend upon the actions of the Congress, the courts, and the military. The Constitution gives the Congress all the power necessary to check the exercise of arbitrary absolute power by the President and those working for him. But there's no evidence that the congressional Republicans loyal to Trump and Musk are willing to check their assertion of dictatorial power.
If the Republicans were to lose control of the Congress in the mid-term elections of 2026, the new Congress might try to impeach Trump again. But in that case, Trump and Musk would overturn the elections by asserting that they were rigged, and they could call out the MAGA militias for another insurrection.
It is also possible that Trump and Musk would declare in 2026 that since the nation is in a permanent state of emergency, elections cannot be held.
The courts can declare the actions of Trump and Musk illegal and unconstitutional. In fact, they have already violated dozens of laws. Every time they take over or shut down a federal agency, they are violating the congressional laws that set up and regulate those agencies.
The Supreme Court could say that Trump and Musk are in violation of the Constitution. But as I have indicated, the Supreme Court justices loyal to Trump have already ruled--against the original meaning of the Constitution--that the President is a "King Above the Law."
And even if the Supreme Court were to rule against Trump and Musk, they could simply ignore their ruling. Indeed, it's likely that Trump and Musk will soon tell their Department of Justice to refuse to obey any court orders that restrict presidential rule by executive decrees. (The intellectual impetus for what Trump and Musk are doing comes from scholars who argue for a "unitary presidency," which allows for the president to exercise arbitrary and absolute powers during times of emergency. Much of this reasoning comes from Carl Schmitt, the legal apologist for the Nazis who insisted that the "Leader Principle" transcended the law.)
As I have suggested in the past, when Trump lost the election in 2020, some of the people around him urged him to call out the military to overturn the election, but he was warned by General Mark Milley and others that the military would not obey. But now, we see that in planting his loyalists in the Defense Department, he could be preparing the military to support his fascist rule. (Notice that Trump's Defense Department has revoked General Milley's security detail, which exposes him to assassination by one of Trump's militia men.)
So, it all comes down to one question. Will the military obey the commands of Trump and Musk in support of a fascist oligarchy?
Whether a dictator has a minimal winning coalition often depends on whether he has sufficient support in the military.
And so we see the end of America's experiment in liberal democracy coming on the eve of the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence in 2026.
Glad to see you are still batting 1.000 on never having a conservative opinion. Even auditing government spending you find a way to be against.
ReplyDeleteAmerican conservatives are above all constitutionalists. And therefore, they oppose the unconstitutional rule by presidential decrees. Curtis Yarvin is not a conservative, and he vehemently scorns American constitutional democracy.
ReplyDeleteI am perplexed by the cool calmness that Professor Arnhart exhibits as he writes about how we are very close, the closest we have ever been, to end of the rule of law under the U.S. Constitution.
ReplyDeleteOn the contrary, many people have criticized my posts on Trump as showing "Trump derangement syndrome." I will be writing more about the "chimpanzee politics" of Trump's "unitary presidency."
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