Is Trump's Populist Authoritarianism What America Really Wants? Or Do Americans Really Hate High Inflation?

I was wrong.

For years, beginning in 2016, I have argued that Trump's populist authoritarianism was not really popular enough to win the popular vote.  After all, he lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020.  This indicated to me that although he had a solid base of 35 to 40 percent of the voters, he did not have a majority, although he could win in the Electoral College.  That's why I predicted that Harris would win the election yesterday.

So, now that Trump has won the popular election, we face two questions.  First, will Trump be the kind of populist authoritarian that he has promised to be?  

If he does fulfill this promise, he will use his power as Commander-in-Chief to use the military to punish "the enemy within"--those who disagree with him.  He will use his pardoning power to protect himself and his supporters from criminal prosecution (including the January 6th insurrectionists).  He will also act vigorously within the immunity from criminal prosecution for "official acts" recently granted to him by his Supreme Court.  He will use the military to help him in forcibly deporting over 10 million illegal immigrants.  He will raise tariffs on imports so high as to impede international trade and create what will be effectively a high sales tax on imported goods.  He will establish an isolationist foreign policy that weakens the NATO alliance and withholds support for Ukraine in its war against the Russian invasion.

Trump and his supporters have said that he is God's Chosen One to save America.  After all, didn't God miraculously intervene to turn his head away from the assassin's bullet?  If they believe this, will they treat Trump's opponents as evil enemies of God?

If Trump carries out these and other promises for acting as a populist authoritarian, that will raise a second question:  will the Americans who voted for him say yes, this is just what they wanted?  Or will they regret their choice?

Actually, I see no evidence that Trump's supporters voted for his populist authoritarianism.  But I do see evidence that they voted against the inflation during Biden's term.  In the summer of 2022, the inflation rate was over 9 percent--the highest inflation rate in 40 years.  Overall, consumer prices have gone up over 20 percent under Biden.  Home prices have gone up 37 percent.  Gasoline prices 33 percent.  It is true that over the past year, the inflation rate has dropped to about 2.4 percent.  But notice what that means:  Prices are not dropping.  But the rate of increase has slowed.

Among voters who said that the poor economy--and particularly high inflation--was the primary issue for them, the great majority (60 to 70 percent) said that they were voting for Trump.  This would explain the Latino and Black male vote for Trump.

Yesterday, the Associated Press released its AP VoteCast--a survey of more than 120,000 voters nationwide--that shows the primacy of the high-inflation issue for the Trump voters.

My mistake was not seeing that the American voter's hatred of high inflation will defeat any candidate who is identified as responsible for inflation.  Harris pointed to the indicators of a growing economy with low unemployment.  But she could not escape responsibility for inflation.

One of the Trump campaign's most effective tv ads juxtaposed these comments from Kamala Harris:

VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS, 2024: Everyday prices are too high... Food, rent, gas, back-to-school clothes.

HARRIS, 2023: That is called Bidenomics!

HARRIS, 2024: A loaf of bread costs 50% more... ground beef is up almost 50%... There's not much left at the end of the month.

HARRIS, 2023: Bidenomics is working!

HARRIS, 2024: The price of housing has gone up. It feels so hard to be able to just get ahead.

HARRIS, 2023: We are so proud of Bidenomics!

That one ad might have been enough to defeat Harris.

How could Harris have answered this charge that Bidenomics caused high inflation?  She could have argued that Bidenomics was an extension of Trumpenomics.  Four years ago, the Biden administration and Congressional Democrats enacted the American Rescue Plan that pumped $1.9 trillion into the economy, which included $1,300 payments to American families.  As predicted by economists like Larry Summers, this overstimulated the economy and created a surge in inflation starting in 2021 and peaking in 2022.  But Harris could have argued that this ARP stimulus was simply adding to the $2.7 trillion in pandemic relief spending enacted under President Trump.  So, if this was a mistake, it was a mistake made by both Trump and Biden.

Nevertheless, the American economy has recovered from the pandemic economic downturn faster and more robustly than any other economy in the world.  And the rate of inflation has gone down dramatically in the past year, although Americans are now suffering from the overall increase in prices of over 20% over the past four years.

When Harris was asked whether she would have done anything different from what was done during Biden's term, she said she couldn't think of anything she would have done differently.  What she should have said is "Yes, of course, the big spending programs supported by Biden--and by Trump!--drove up inflation.  So, I promise to keep inflation low, and if inflation rises during my term, I promise that I will not run for a second term."

Harris could then have argued that if Trump were elected, voters would quickly become dissatisfied with Trump when his policies (such as high tariffs on imports) create a new surge in high inflation.  The U.S. is the world's largest importer.  The value of imported goods and services is over 3.8 trillion dollars a year.  Imagine the higher prices that would come from putting tariffs of over 20% on all of that.

If this happens, the voters will turn against the Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential election, just as they turned against the Democrats in this year's election.