tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16355954.post5295611274156309471..comments2024-03-28T08:57:53.180+00:00Comments on Darwinian Conservatism by Larry Arnhart: If COVID-19 is no more deadly than the seasonal flu, then shouldn't we end the shutdown?Larry Arnharthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14619785331100785170noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16355954.post-9218475860548744722020-04-24T23:44:14.230+01:002020-04-24T23:44:14.230+01:00I don't want to argue for or against closures,...I don't want to argue for or against closures, but this and the last post struck me as uncharacteristic of your writing.<br /><br />You stated, we have <b>clear evidence</b> ..."<br />Yet then say, "Only when we know how many people have been infected, can we then calculate the true mortality rate."<br />and your words <br />"...which <b>indicated</b> that they had been infected..."<br /> "...the <b>likely number</b> of people in LA County..."<br />This <b>suggests</b> that the true fatality rate (can one say"suggests" and "true" in the same sentence? I guess one can but...)<br />"<b>If</b> these studies of the COVID-19 fatality rate are confirmed...."<br /><br />I keep looking for your "clear evidence"<br /><br />Fatality rates - "because of the scarcity of testing and other reasons, we will find that the number of COVID-19 deaths has been grossly underestimated." The final death toll is going to depend on multiple factors: the density of the population; availability of testing; genetic factors (both host and virus); the public health response; and the robustness of the healthcare system." (https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/85925)<br /><br />an aside - There was a vaccine ready by the time the 1957 flu came to the US. “When the new flu strain hit the United States in September, … the country was ready with a vaccine.” https://www.history.com/news/1957-flu-pandemic-vaccine-hilleman. The history.com article also says “Making a vaccine for a new flu strain is very different from making a vaccine for something completely new like COVID-19…. Doctors and scientists first developed viable flu vaccines in the 1940s, so they were not starting from scratch when they went to work on the 1957 flu vaccine.”<br /><br />There may have been a few closures, granted not many.(1957 didn't have the information infratructure we have today)<br />(“Fairfax County closed 32 public schools to prevent spread of the disease.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/in-1957-a-new-flu-appeared-in-asia-the-world-watched-and-waited-for-it-to-spread/2020/03/17/9f5205b4-685f-11ea-b313-df458622c2cc_story.html. )HK Flemingnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16355954.post-71463552684963594752020-04-24T04:32:25.257+01:002020-04-24T04:32:25.257+01:00There is evidence that the disease spread much ear...There is evidence that the disease spread much earlier than had been thought. I think that would tend to support the idea the fatality rate is lower than most of the experts have assumed<br /><br />www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/us/coronavirus-early-outbreaks-cities.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage<br /><br />--Les BrunswickAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16355954.post-7826137593351496712020-04-23T01:26:13.873+01:002020-04-23T01:26:13.873+01:00If these research findings hold up, it would be ve...If these research findings hold up, it would be very good news indeed.<br /><br />However, I would like to add that if the fatality rate for COVID-19 is equal to that of the seasonal flu, that does not mean an equal number of people would die if it spread throughout the population. That is because every year we have a vaccine for the flu, but we don't yet have one for the coronavirus.<br /><br />--Les BrunswickAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com