tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16355954.post1299608582298371506..comments2024-03-28T08:57:53.180+00:00Comments on Darwinian Conservatism by Larry Arnhart: How Many Will Die in the Coronavirus Pandemic? Neil Ferguson's Surprising TurnLarry Arnharthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14619785331100785170noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16355954.post-17566761580064994302020-03-27T22:37:03.155+00:002020-03-27T22:37:03.155+00:00While the data continues to emerge on this pandemi...While the data continues to emerge on this pandemic, one might note that the mortality rate at the Kirkland nursing home is now 30% in three weeks -- of the total residents (fixed denominator). This is with full access to all available critical care, i.e. prior to any potentially overwhelmed medical system. <br /><br />Reports from New York hospitals at this moment are far from encouraging. <br /><br />We will see. W. Bondhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11876061563314623223noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16355954.post-77922442919965066302020-03-27T22:33:59.230+00:002020-03-27T22:33:59.230+00:00FWIW, Ferguson clarified his comments yesterday on...FWIW, Ferguson clarified his comments yesterday on Twitter: "1/4 - I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19...2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged...3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place...4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand)."W. Bondhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11876061563314623223noreply@blogger.com